In starting this analysis of goals scored and conceded by Detroit City I want to start by pointing out that I am not a writer nor someone who has any experience talking about soccer. All I am is someone who really likes City in search of more coverage of matches and in true City fashion if you want to see it, do it.
I plan on breaking each goal down into 10 seconds clips and analyzing what happened to lead to each goal. Hopefully some of you find this information useful and find enjoyment from it.
Throw in for City after a header out of bounds from CFC off a free kick from the keeper. Ball is thrown in to Lawson who is pressured from behind and is able to chip the ball over the three defenders around him to Todd who is unable to retain possession.
CFC begin working up the field but Number 10 for CFC is caught flat footed on a pass and is able to get a toe on the ball bouncing it forward to Tendai who makes an over the shoulder volley, landing in some space for Lawson to control.
Lawson gathers the ball and Cyrus begins making a run up the right side of the pitch, mirrored by Borges on the left. Number 21 for CFC gets caught ball watching in a very deep position and moving towards the ball which allows Lawson to play the ball to Cyrus with tons of space.
Cyrus takes a couple dribbles towards the net and pauses to force the keeper to set his feet and then plays it across the goal to a well-positioned Borges who taps the ball into the back of the net to put City ahead 1-0. Both Todd and Lawson were also well behind the defense which is kinda surprising looking at where the defenders were when the play began.
DCFC 2 CFC 0 60’ G:
Danny Deakin A: Ryan Peterson
Play resumes with a corner kick for CFC played to the far side of the goal which appears to be played a little too long allowing Crisler to clear the ball with a header. CFC regains possession but a heavy touch causes #25 for CFC to attempt to save the ball from going out of bounds.
Todd fights for the ball along the touch line and kicks it
forward to a waiting Peterson who plays it up the touch line. A nice hold on
the ball gives Peterson some room to work. Deakin is waiting onside in a really
good position for a pass.
#4 for CFC looks to be a bad position, CFC has two players on the ball and no one marking Deakin.
The ball is played into open space for Deakin to run to. He collects, takes a couple dribbles, survive a shove from behind from #3, and then finish by driving the ball through the legs of the keeper making it 2-0 City.
I love watching goal celebrations and #3 sad kicking the ball
out of the net is just perfect after that push from behind.
DCFC 2 CFC 1 65’ G: Alun Webb A: Markus Smarzoch
Goal kick for City coming off some pressure from CFC. Steinwascher drives the ball past the midfield line and CFC wins the ball after two successful challenges in the air. A short pass to #25 gets him some space to work.
#25 plays the ball up the right to #7 who has a step on Tendai. Tendai does well to make up the distance but loses the shoulder to shoulder challenge which gives #7 enough time to direct the ball towards the net beating Steinwascher giving us our final. Detroit City FC 2 Chattanooga FC 1.
I hope you enjoyed reading my recap of the goals from this game and if there is interest this may be something that I continue doing.
If you have any suggestions, notice an error, or any other reason want to contact me you can find me on Twitter @frontiere_rob or on the fence at mid field.
Here’s the short version: DCFC gets the first seed and a first round bye if its the only division champion that wins this weekend, and the second seed and a first round bye if only two division champions win this weekend. If all three division leaders win OR in most cases where DCFC doesn’t, DCFC is locked into hosting a first round match against Rochester Lancers. A Minneapolis draw is basically a win, a Cleveland draw is basically a loss.
But you’re reading a blog about a fourth division soccer club. You probably want the long version.
Detroit City FC clinched the division championship in a very exciting road win over rival Ann Arbor last Sunday. However, they don’t just get to coast in this Saturday’s contest at Kalamazoo, there is still regional seeding to play for.
The top 2 teams from each of the Midwest Region’s three conferences will make the playoffs, with the champions seeded 1-3 and the runners-up seeded 4-6. The seeding shall be determined among the conferences by points per game, a wild system considering DCFC and the Great Lakes plays 14 games, while the East only plays 10 and the North plays 12. I have a lot of thoughts about who this is an advantage for, and whether or not this system has historically be an advantage or disadvantage for the division that played the most games is a great idea for another post. My hunch is that the teams that come off the worse are the teams that play the fewest games, not the most.
The two division champions with the best PPG get a first round bye, with the third division champion hosting a first round match on Tuesday July 16. After the first round, the semi finals will be on Friday July 19th and the finals on Sunday July 21st, with both rounds occurring at a single venue decided on by vote of the owners. I’d imagine that Keyworth would be seriously in the running to host these rounds for atmosphere reasons, but I can understand why they’d defer to teams with a “higher” seed, and try to spread around playoff hosting.
The truth is Keyworth’s only guaranteed chance to host a playoff match is by DCFC not getting a first round bye, and if that’s something you want I understand where you’re coming from. But I believe they have a better chance at hosting the semis and finals if they get that bye, making both the seeding case and the spreading-the-love case for a Hamtramck hosting bid stronger. Personally I’d prefer the bye whether we host or not.
In the first round, matchups are determined by geography, with the two Easternmost teams playing the two Westernmost teams. This guarantees that Detroit would play the East second place, leaving the second place Great Lakes and North teams to play. (I think this also means if City does get that bye, the East teams will play each other.) In the semis and finals, teams are seeded based on regular season record, meaning the #1 seed is guaranteed to avoid playing another division champ in the semis.
Here’s a look at the current playoff table:
So, if you read the Reddit version of this piece you may have seen a different table and folks, I don’t want to talk about it. This one is right. (And the rest of the math in the Reddit post is right.) Anyways, as you can see City is currently in the third seed, and as both MCFC and CSC have higher possible PPG, to some degree the most likely outcome is that they stay there. But with some help, they can avoid that fate.
DCFC GETS THE #1 OVERALL SEED (AND BYE) IF:
DCFC wins, Minneapolis loses, Cleveland draws or loses.
DCFC GETS THE #2 OVERALL SEED (AND BYE) IF:
DCFC wins, Minneapolis loses, Cleveland wins. OR
DCFC wins, Minneapolis wins, Cleveland draws or loses. OR
DCFC draws, Cleveland draws or loses. OR
DCFC loses, Cleveland loses, Rochester draws or loses.
Minneapolis wins or draws, Cleveland wins. DCFC result is irrelevant.
Which one of these scenarios is most likely is up for some debate, and depends how you feel about the actual games. DCFC isn’t the only team with stakes: both the East division championship and the rights to the second seeds from the North and Great Lakes division are still up for grabs.
Remaining Games with Stakes
Great Lakes Division:
DCFC @ Kalamazoo FC, 3pm Saturday: DCFC is playing for seeding, Kzoo is playing for pride. They are the only team who handed DCFC a regular season loss so who knows.
AFC Ann Arbor v. Toledo FC, 6pm Friday: Ann Arbor can clinch the playoffs with a win, but a draw or loss leaves them vulnerable to being caught by GR, who is only one point back. Toledo, of course, really sucks with the first meeting being a 4-1 AFCAA win, so the obvious prediction is that AFCAA takes the 3 points and heads to the playoffs, but if that doesn’t happen…
Grand Rapids FC v. Michigan Stars, 7:30pm Saturday: If Ann Arbor doesn’t take 3 points and Grand Rapids does, Grand Rapids steals the last playoff bid. However, Ann Arbor holds the tiebreaker so Grand Rapids would need a win. The Stars did upset the Blues in their first meeting, but GR gets lucky as it will go into the game knowing what the stakes are, due to AFCAA playing first. Am I rooting for Toledo and Grand Rapids this weekend? I’m not committing to saying “no.”
Med City FC @ MPLS City FC, 7pm Friday: The match of the weekend. While MPLS has sown up the division, Med City can be caught and miss out on the playoffs. Med City will be going all-out for the win and the chance to clinch the division, hopefully taking the win and opening the door to DCFC’s first round bye. The first meeting was a 1-1 draw at Med City’s place, with Minneapolis scoring an equalizer at 87′. Remember, an MPLS draw is enough for them to clinch the PPG lead over DCFC.
Duluth FC v. LC Aris FC, 7pm Friday: If Med City does lose or draw with MPLS, look for Duluth to take their playoff spot, as they face the North Division’s worst team.
Cleveland v. FC Buffalo, 4pm Saturday: Cleveland hasn’t actually clinched the division championship and can do so with a point against FC Buffalo. Buffalo is playing for pride and hopefully will be looking to send their season out on a high note and do a little favor for their old pals in Rouge, while avenging a 3-0 home loss in the first meeting. RIP Rust Belt Derby. Would have loved to see it in the playoffs.
Rochester Lancers @ Erie Commodores FC, 7pm Saturday: Remember Erie? You hate them? They’re not trying to make the playoffs but they are at home against a team that has already clinched the playoffs. This game only matters if Cleveland loses, and barely factors into the DCFC scenarios. Erie did win the first meeting, but a draw last week knocked them out of playoff contention.
While on paper it might seem that our best hope for a first round bye is a Cleveland draw, I think there’s a better chance that Med City comes out swinging, needed a win to sew up a playoff bid against a Minneapolis team that might have its foot off the gas with the division title in hand. Their first meeting almost resulted in a Med City win, so its not as if they’re overmatched. Buffalo hasn’t had such a bad season that a Cleveland upset is out of the question, but Cleveland has only given up 8 goals this season, second in the region to DCFC’s 5. A weekend where everything goes wild and DCFC stumbles into the first seed and parlays that into hosting the semis and finals would be pretty sweet, but I think that’s something of a long shot. Hopefully the second seed is enough for the league’s owners to send the playoffs to Keyworth. If everything goes chalk, a date with Rochester is hopefully just a warmup for a big playoff weekend.
Yes, this is basically the same post that was posted on the r/DetroitCityFC subreddit, a place where I encourage you to hang out. Miko asked me to post it here, and I’m going to try to post more stat-y and research-y things. You can follow me on twitter @jmwink_, but you don’t have to.
Ann Arbor’s 0-2 victory over FC Indiana combined with DCFC’s 1-1 draw against Grand Rapids means a 1st-place tie on points with 2 matches remaining in the league. Grand Rapids is still in the race for 2nd place (which earns a berth to the Midwest Regional Playoffs).
Two of Sunday’s matches, FC Indiana vs. Grand Rapids and Ann Arbor vs. DCFC, will have playoff implications.
After an over-filled slate of league fixtures over the weekend (that saw everyone except DCFC and AFC Ann Arbor play twice), the gaps between the top 3 in the table have stayed the same.
Le Rouge continues to have a 2-point lead over AFC Ann Arbor, and a 4-point lead over Grand Rapids FC.
Grand Rapids took three points from two home games with a 1-0 victory over Kalamazoo on Friday night followed by a 0-2 loss against Ann Arbor on Sunday afternoon.
The last 3 rounds of league fixtures will be quickfire, taking place between July 3rd and July 13th. DCFC’s next league match is Friday, July 5th, at home versus Grand Rapids FC. Kick-off is scheduled for 7:30pm.
After today’s stunning 3-2 home win by the Michigan Stars over Grand Rapids FC, Detroit City keeps that 4-point gap on Grand Rapids, though now Grand Rapids has just one game in hand remaining.
Next Friday’s match between Grand Rapids and Kalamazoo, and next Sunday’s match between Grand Rapids and AFC Ann Arbor will be important to help define the narrative of deciding who will finish Top Two in the division, and qualify for the Midwest Conference Playoffs.